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This is simply a part of my ongoing, long-term position building for Relay Therapeutics.
My long-term goal is to build a position of 10,000 shares or more before the business begins to ramp commercially. I have now purchased 2,456 shares (25% of goal) since Finch Trades started in April 2024. My cost basis for Relay Therapeutics Finch Trades is $5.18 per share or a market valuation of $867.0 million based on the current number of shares outstanding.
The San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium (SABCS) 2024 is this week. Relay Therapeutics will provide a data update tomorrow morning (December 11, 2024) at 7am EST for RLY-2608.
Although management continues to expect to report preliminary data for the initial RLY-2608 triplet (fulvestrant and ribociclib), the press release for tomorrow's update is worded ambiguously. Investors might see updated data for the RLY-2608 doublet with fulvestrant with one to two more months of data from the last readout in September 2024. Investors might see the preliminary data for the initial RLY-2608 triplet. Or investors might see both.
I'm not concerned with what data readout will occur. Besides, this is a good "problem" to have and is a sign of the maturing pipeline. Not too long ago investors only had one or two early-stage data readouts per year. The trajectory of the data reported so far suggests RLY-2608 will continue to have a favorable clinical profile.
Earlier today, key next-generation competitor Scorpion Therapeutics reported promising data for STX-478 monotherapy at SABCS. The asset found its maximum tolerated dose (MTD), which was unknown as of the last data update in September 2024. But it also threw up more questions about potential liver toxicity, which may complicate its value in combination treatments -- the most important commercial use of wielding a PI3K-alpha inhibitor in the first place. I shared thoughts on the latest data for STX-478 from SABCS 2024 on Discord.
Unfortunately, there are no comparable data available for RLY-2608 because Relay Therapeutics prioritized combinations initially, although a clinical trial exploring a monotherapy is on track to expand before the end of 2024. That means we'll get some apples-to-apples data in 2025.
If you aren't already on Discord, then join me and fellow members as we discuss biotech investing and Finch Trades in a more timely manner.
The Trade
Relay Therapeutics is considered a Growth (Quality) position. I purchased 562.45 shares at $4.45 per share on December 10, 2024.
Margin of Safety & Allocation
Relay Therapeutics is considered a Growth (Quality) position. The current modeled fair valuation for the company based on my 2025 model is below:
- Market close December 10, 2024: $4.42 per share
- Modeled Fair Valuation: $15.65 per share
- Allocation Range: Up to 15%
Relay Therapeutics reported 167.383 million shares outstanding as of November 1, 2024. The modeled fair valuation above assumes 175.752 million shares outstanding, which is equivalent to 5% dilution.