Finch Trades: Relay Therapeutics (November 20, 2024)

Bottom-Up Insights
  • Trade: I purchased 439.647 shares of Relay Therapeutics at $4.55 per share on November 20, 2024.
  • Portfolio: Personal Brokerage
  • Rationale: My investment thesis for Relay Therapeutics is that motion-based drug design (MBDD) represents a rare step-change in the efficiency of drug development. By raising the probability of success (POS), investors can feel comfortable paying higher premiums for assets and the company as a whole.
  • Holding Period: As long as she'll have me.

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This is simply a part of my ongoing, long-term position building for Relay Therapeutics. My long-term goal is to build a position of 10,000 shares or more before the business begins to ramp commercially. I have now purchased 1,331 shares (13% of goal) since Finch Trades started in April 2024.

Importantly, investors can expect an important data readout next month. The preliminary phase 1 data readout for the first RLY-2608 triplet combination with a hormone degrader (fulvestrant = current standard of care) and CDK inhibitor (ribociclib / Kisqali = current generation CDK inhibitor) is likely to be announced at the San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium 2024 in December 10-13.

This will be an important first test to see if RLY-2608's tolerability advantage allows better performance when paired with a CDK inhibitor. That's especially true now that Roche has earned FDA approval for Itovebi (inavolisib) as a triplet combination with fulvestrant and a current-generation CDK inhibitor, which Roche management believes will have peak annual sales of $2 billion. Relay Therapeutics is poised to best the performance of Itovebi with the initial triplet combination, but is also eager to swap in next-generation hormone degraders and CDK inhibitors.

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The Trade

Relay Therapeutics is considered a Growth (Quality) position. I purchased 439.647 shares at $4.55 per share on November 20, 2024.

Margin of Safety & Allocation

Relay Therapeutics is considered a Growth (Quality) position. The current modeled fair valuation for the company based on our 2024 model is below:

  • Market close November 20, 2024: $4.66 per share
  • Modeled Fair Valuation: $17.99 per share
  • Allocation Range: Up to 15%

Relay Therapeutics reported 167.383 million shares outstanding as of November 1, 2024. The modeled fair valuation above assumes 175.752 million shares outstanding, which is equivalent to 5% dilution.